What heuristic can lead decision-makers to choose options that seem correct but overlook relevant probabilities?

The representativeness heuristic is a cognitive shortcut used by individuals to make judgments about the probability of an event based on how similar it is to a prototype they have in their mind. This heuristic focuses on comparing instances to a mental stereotype rather than considering relevant probabilities or base rates, which can lead to misguided decisions.

For example, if someone encounters a person who fits a certain stereotype of a profession, they may erroneously conclude that this person is more likely to belong to that profession, despite knowing that the overall number of individuals in that profession is low. Thus, their decision-making can become skewed, as they are influenced by how representative the example is rather than the actual statistical likelihood of the scenario.

In this way, the representativeness heuristic can cause decision-makers to overlook relevant probabilities, as they rely on their mental models and assumptions that may not accurately reflect the actual situation. This can lead to conclusions that feel intuitively right but are statistically unfounded.